According to the analysis conducted by the Globe, the state inflated the decline in smoking rates and took credit for changes outside the campaign, such as the increase in the state's cigarette tax.

Currently, Massachusetts has the third-lowest rate of smoking in the United States. But the analysis found that smoking rates in the state began to decline before the antismoking campaign was implemented in late 1993. Furthermore, the review showed that the rate of decline actually slowed since the campaign began.

"People with a program always believe that it works," said Dr. Terry F. Pechacek, associate director of science for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Office of Smoking and Health. "It's difficult to say how much of an effect the program has had because the price increases and the program have happened at a similar time."

Studies by the CDC, as well as independent analysts, found that the decline in smoking rates in Massachusetts isn't necessarily attributed to the state's anti-smoking ads, but could be traced to an increase in the cigarette tax from 26 cents to $1.51 per pack.

"Overall, we have confidence that the Massachusetts effort is having an effect, however small," Pechacek said. "Massachusetts has been in a tough spot as a pacesetter, defending things that they believe in their guts do work, before they have the data to know whether they work."

Data from the CDC and other researchers were not used by health groups when they lobbied Massachusetts lawmakers to restore the campaign's full funding. The budget for the Massachusetts Tobacco Control Program was reduced from $40 million to $6 million this fall.

State public-health officials defended their message about the campaign's benefits, saying it wasn't oversell.

"We see the tax increase as part of the campaign," said Lois Biener, a senior research fellow with the University of Massachusetts at Boston. "And a change in the social norm about smoking may lead to support for more tax increases. So you can't separate the effect of the tax increases from the effect of the program."

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